Good Versus Evil?

Does the Cornell/Kentucky match up cause anxiety for the powers that be in the NCAA sports business?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/36024019/ns/sports-college_basketball/


The contrast between the two programs could not be more complete. Cornell does not offer athletic scholarships. Kentucky offers scholarships (and maybe a lot more?). Kentucky graduates 31% of its players. True, a few of UK's players will make millions playing in the NBA and some others will make a decent living playing overseas. So, maybe they are not all being exploited by the school, but that only emphasizes the differences in the programs.

http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010/mar/18/reid-ncaa-graduation-rates-offer-real-score/

Cornell represents the ideal image of college sports. UK epitomizes the underbelly of the business of big time college sports. Both are somewhat atypical, but Cornell is a dinosaur - the Ivy League is the only D-1 conference that does not allow athletic scholarships.

UK hired Calapari, whose previous two schools (UMass and Memphis) ended up on probation for the cheating that occurred while he was coach. (I was going to say 'shenanigans', but that it is just a euphemism, like saying "parallel ancestry" when you mean "in-breeding").

Pat Forde of ESPN called UK's approach 'hear-no-evil, see-no-evil'. They not only hired Calapari, but they got most of his Memphis recruiting class to follow him up to Lexington. 


http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Should-Kentucky-worry-about-Calipari-s-recruitin?urn=ncaab,151749





I don't understand UK hiring Calapari. Can't a program like UK can win without cheating? Maybe I'm wearing blinders, but does North Carolina cheat? Kansas? Indiana? (Well, IU caught Kelvin Sampson cheating and dropped the atomic bomb on their own program. Think UK would ever do that?). But doesn't UK see what's coming?

Yes, Calapari is one of only four coaches to take two different teams to the Final Four, but he is the only coach to ever have two teams forfeit those Final Four appearances.

UMass made a metric crap-load of money when Calapari was there - enough to get a new arena built. They got to the Final Four - even if they had to forfeit it, it still happened. Sort of like the now-we-know-it-was-phony home run battle between Sosa and McGwire. Maybe UMass figured it was worth it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/sports/baseball/05homers.html

Memphis just lost its appeal of the NCAA's ruling that the Tigers had to forfeit their 38 wins in 2008 and give back all the dough from their Final Four run. Memphis had their most recent previous Final Four appearance in 1985 vacated for cheating too and they hadn't won in a long time, so maybe they too figured it was worth the risk.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2010/mar/22/university-memphis-appeal-turned-down-ncaa-committ/

But Kentucky? Kentucky can't get good enough players to compete for a national title without hiring the guy whose last two teams forfeited their Final Fours? Is it that hard to predict the end of this story?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/367962-memphis-smacked-by-ncaa-should-john-caliparis-kentucky-be-worried

NCAA Day 3

The crashing of so many brackets was occasioned by the stunning loss by Kansas to mighty Northern Iowa. Like Woody Guthrie sang, Down and Out. Disgusted, busted and couldn't be trusted. (Listen to this song; you'll feel better).

Watching the game unfold, Kansas looked very beatable and Northern Iowa had the audacity to do it led by a guard named Ali Farokhmanesh. UNI knocks out Kansas, advances to Sweet 16

Could be worse, could have "got the fever, Sun stroke, Malaria, blue, moonstruck, skeeter bit, Poison Ivy and the 7-year itch and the blind staggers, give up for less, lost and dead a couple of times, Struck by lightning, struck by Congress, struck by friends and kinfolks well as by 3 cars on highways A lot of times in peoples hen-houses, been hit and run down run over and walked on knocked around."



Watching Kentucky dismantle Wake Forest, on the other hand, only raised one question: how did Kentucky lose two games this year?

Miller, dominant Kentucky wallop Wake Forest

Before watching that game, I actually thought the Badgers might be able to beat Kentucky if the UW could get past Cornell. The only way Kentucky is going to lose is if they act like freshmen and do a bunch of stupid things.

BYU took down the rest of my bracket by losing to K State. K-State reaches first regional semi since 1988

The Other UW pounded overrated New Mexico. Pondexter, Washington punch ticket to Sweet 16

Jim Keck and my daughter Lindsay (not to be confused with Lindsay Wood Davis) now lead the pool.

Day 2

Day Two of the tournament saw the results return to form with only one upset 
according to the seeding, Cornell over Temple, and no buzzer beaters. The Big 
Ten won 4 of 5 with only Minnesota losing. (The best news for Badger fans is 
Tubby Smith is rumored to be headed to Auburn.) Cornell has size and that could 
spell big trouble for the Badgers. 
 
Michigan State struggled to beat New Mex State and got some help from the refs 
with a late lane violation call. Nex Mex State guard took the prize for being 
the biggest whiner when he rolled around on the floor interminably after a 
phantom poke to the man region.  
 
Izzo said the Spartans played great. Huh? I thought they looked like a team 
headed for the exits in round two. 
 
At the beginning of day 3 I could still say, "I'm still in first place." 

Not Bad for a Start

The 2010 NCAA tournament came on strong in the first day. After a couple years of very few upsets and little drama, the opening day featured 3 overtime games, game after game decided on the final possession, and at least two buzzer beaters, and four bona fide upsets.

The mighty Big East was 1-3 and needed an OT comeback win by Nova over #15 seed Bobby Morris. Villanova dodges Robert Morris' upset bid in OT

Marquette looked like golden chickens as they stood around watching the Other UW drive and score the winning bucket. Pondexter's leaner lifts 11th-seeded Washington Likewise, Texas defense looked paralytic when Wake Forest scored as time ran out to pull off the win. Smith's late swish sends Wake Forest by Texas

Murray State pulled off the play of the day to beat Vanderbilt with a literal buzzer beater; time expired as the winning show was in flight. Murray State stuns No. 4 seed Vandy at buzzer

We didn't get the Ohio upset over Georgetown on TV, but that was the biggest shock of the day. Ohio just is not that good of a team (sub.500 in the MAC). Ohio stuns Georgetown to end tourney drought 


Even Lehigh gave Kansas a tussle for about 30 minutes before falling away.

And most wonderful of all, I sit atop the pool standings for at least one day.

Today is Big Ten day.

My Picks

I mostly went chalk with my picks. (From 2009: Language Log » Obama goes all chalk)


It never pays to knock out the No. 1 seeds before at least the third round; they've won 100% of their first round games and 88% of their second round games and 83% of their 3rd round contests since 1985. It may look boring, but the trend is your friend.

I even stayed chalk all the way to the Final Four.

I did pick some upsets in the early rounds (an upset being a 7 seed or lower winning in the first round or any 4-seed gap after that). I like to use the Sagarin Ratings (2009-10 NCAA men's ratings by team ) and found something calledRaymond's Rankings  this year.

BYU is one of the more under-seeded team in the field at #7, when they should have been a #3. I have them going to the Elite Eight because I don't trust K State (and their coach is raving lunatic) and, more importantly, their likely third round game is against one of the more over-seeded teams in the field: Pitt (they are a #3, but should have been a #5 at the very best and probably lower).

I'm guessing that Purdue will get its act together and win two games, but Siena is a popular pick.



My first-round upsets:
Murray State over Vanderbilt


Utah State over Texas A&M
Minnesota over Xavier
Washington over Marquette
Old Dominion over Notre Dame



According to the computer rankings (you can add your subjective considerations or not):

Under-seeded:
BYU (#7 should have been a #3)
Texas (#8 >> #4)
Missouri (#10 >> #5)
UTEP (#12 >> #8)


Despite the ravings of Jay Bilas, Cornell was not under-seeded, #12 is about right.


Over-seeded:
New Mexico (#3 should have been a #6)
Vanderbilt (#4 >> #7)
Pitt (#3 >> #5)

Odds Are

Here's the full list of Danny Sheridan's odds against winning the NCAA tournament:

 

What's a googolplex, you ask? Dictionary.com helps us out:

 

 

 

The number 10 raised to the power googol, written out as the numeral 1 followed by 10 (to the100th power) zeros.

 

 

 

Or this: 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

 

000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

 

000,000,000,000,000

 

Here's the full list of Danny Sheridan's odds against winning the NCAA tournament:

 

 

Kansas: 3:1

Kentucky: 4:1

 

Syracuse: 6:1

 

Duke: 8:1

 

West Virginia: 10:1

 

Ohio State: 10:1

 

Kansas State: 15:1

 

Villanova: 20:1

 

Georgetown: 20:1

 

Michigan State: 30:1

 

Maryland: 50:1

 

Wisconsin: 50:1

 

Louisville: 50:1

 

Baylor: 50:1

 

Purdue: 55:1

 

Georgia Tech: 55:1

 

Xavier: 60:1

 

New Mexico: 60:1

 

Tennessee: 75:1

 

Pittsburgh: 75:1

 

Temple: 75:1

 

Texas: 75:1

 

Butler: 75:1

 

Vanderbilt: 80:1

 

Gonzaga: 80:1

 

Notre Dame: 100:1

 

BYU: 100:1

 

Marquette: 100:1

 

UNLV: 100:1

 

Oklahoma State: 150:1

 

Florida State: 200:1

 

Wake Forest: 200:1

 

Clemson: 300:1

 

Minnesota: 400:1

 

Missouri: 500:1

 

California: 600:1

 

Washington: 600:1

 

Texas A&M: 750:1

 

Northern Iowa: 1,000:1

 

Florida: 2,500:1

 

Richmond: 2,500:1

 

Siena: 5,000:1

 

Texas-El Paso: 5,000:1

 

St. Mary's: 5,000:1

 

Utah State: 6,000:1

 

San Diego State: 10,000:1

 

New Mexico State: 10,000:1

 

Old Dominion: 100,000:1

 

Houston: 250,000:1

 

Ohio: 250,000:1

 

Cornell: 1 million:1

 

Murray State: 50 million:1

 

Wofford: 50 million:1

 

Sam Houston State: 100 million:1

 

Montana: 250 million:1

 

Oakland: 1 billion:1

 

North Texas: 1 trillion:1

 

Robert Morris 2 trillion:1

 

Morgan State: 5 trillion:1

 

UC-Santa Barbara: 1 octillion:1

 

Ark.-Pine Bluff/Winthrop: 1 googolplex:1

 

East Tennessee State: 2 googolplex:1

 

Vermont: 5 googolplex:1

 

Lehigh: 10 googolplex:1

 

Need Bracket Help?

From CBS Sports March Mayhem

Is history prelude to the future? Before you poick too many #9 seeds to make the Final Four gaze at these records.

Tourney History

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAA Tournament History Index


Tournament seeds



Seeds in the Final Four

Year Seeds Teams

2009 1, 1, 2, 3 North Carolina, Connecticut, Michigan State, Villanova

2008 1, 1, 1, 1 Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA

2007 1, 1, 2, 2 Florida, Ohio State, Georgetown, UCLA

2006 2, 3, 4, 11 UCLA, Florida, LSU, George Mason

2005 1, 1, 4, 5 North Carolina, Illinois, Louisville, Michigan State

2004 1, 2, 2, 3 Duke, Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech

2003 1, 2, 3, 3 Texas, Kansas, Marquette, Syracuse

2002 1, 1, 2, 5 Maryland, Kansas, Oklahoma, Indiana

2001 1, 1, 2, 3 Duke, Michigan State, Arizona, Maryland

2000 1, 5, 8, 8 Michigan State, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin

1999 1, 1, 1, 4 Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State

1998 1, 2, 3, 3 North Carolina, Kentucky, Stanford, Utah

1997 1, 1, 1, 4 Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina, Arizona

1996 1, 1, 4, 5 Kentucky, Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi State

1995 1, 2, 2, 4 UCLA, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma State

1994 1, 2, 2, 3 Arkansas, Arizona, Duke, Florida

1993 1, 1, 1, 2 North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas

1992 1, 2, 4, 6 Duke, Indiana, Cincinnati, Michigan

1991 1, 1, 2, 3 UNLV, North Carolin, Duke, Kansas

1990 1, 3, 4, 4 UNLV, Duke, Georgia Tech, Arkansas

1989 1, 2, 3, 3 Illinois, Duke, Seton Hall, Michigan

1988 1, 1, 2, 6 Arizona, Oklahoma, Duke, Kansas

1987 1, 1, 2, 6 UNLV, Indiana, Syracuse, Providence

1986 1, 1, 2, 11 Duke, Kansas, Louisville, LSU

1985 1, 1, 2, 8 St. John's, Georgetown, Memphis, Villanova

1984 1, 1, 2, 7 Kentucky, Georgetown, Houston, Virginia

1983 1, 1, 4, 6 Houston, Louisville, Georgia, N.C. State

1982 1, 1, 3, 6 North Carolina, Georgetown, Louisville, Houston

1981 1, 1, 2, 3 Virginia, LSU, North Carolina, Indiana

1980 2, 5, 6, 8 Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, UCLA

1979 1, 2, 2, 9 Indiana State, Michigan State, DePaul, Pennsylvania