My Picks

I mostly went chalk with my picks. (From 2009: Language Log » Obama goes all chalk)


It never pays to knock out the No. 1 seeds before at least the third round; they've won 100% of their first round games and 88% of their second round games and 83% of their 3rd round contests since 1985. It may look boring, but the trend is your friend.

I even stayed chalk all the way to the Final Four.

I did pick some upsets in the early rounds (an upset being a 7 seed or lower winning in the first round or any 4-seed gap after that). I like to use the Sagarin Ratings (2009-10 NCAA men's ratings by team ) and found something calledRaymond's Rankings  this year.

BYU is one of the more under-seeded team in the field at #7, when they should have been a #3. I have them going to the Elite Eight because I don't trust K State (and their coach is raving lunatic) and, more importantly, their likely third round game is against one of the more over-seeded teams in the field: Pitt (they are a #3, but should have been a #5 at the very best and probably lower).

I'm guessing that Purdue will get its act together and win two games, but Siena is a popular pick.



My first-round upsets:
Murray State over Vanderbilt


Utah State over Texas A&M
Minnesota over Xavier
Washington over Marquette
Old Dominion over Notre Dame



According to the computer rankings (you can add your subjective considerations or not):

Under-seeded:
BYU (#7 should have been a #3)
Texas (#8 >> #4)
Missouri (#10 >> #5)
UTEP (#12 >> #8)


Despite the ravings of Jay Bilas, Cornell was not under-seeded, #12 is about right.


Over-seeded:
New Mexico (#3 should have been a #6)
Vanderbilt (#4 >> #7)
Pitt (#3 >> #5)