Good Versus Evil?

Does the Cornell/Kentucky match up cause anxiety for the powers that be in the NCAA sports business?

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/36024019/ns/sports-college_basketball/


The contrast between the two programs could not be more complete. Cornell does not offer athletic scholarships. Kentucky offers scholarships (and maybe a lot more?). Kentucky graduates 31% of its players. True, a few of UK's players will make millions playing in the NBA and some others will make a decent living playing overseas. So, maybe they are not all being exploited by the school, but that only emphasizes the differences in the programs.

http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010/mar/18/reid-ncaa-graduation-rates-offer-real-score/

Cornell represents the ideal image of college sports. UK epitomizes the underbelly of the business of big time college sports. Both are somewhat atypical, but Cornell is a dinosaur - the Ivy League is the only D-1 conference that does not allow athletic scholarships.

UK hired Calapari, whose previous two schools (UMass and Memphis) ended up on probation for the cheating that occurred while he was coach. (I was going to say 'shenanigans', but that it is just a euphemism, like saying "parallel ancestry" when you mean "in-breeding").

Pat Forde of ESPN called UK's approach 'hear-no-evil, see-no-evil'. They not only hired Calapari, but they got most of his Memphis recruiting class to follow him up to Lexington. 


http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Should-Kentucky-worry-about-Calipari-s-recruitin?urn=ncaab,151749





I don't understand UK hiring Calapari. Can't a program like UK can win without cheating? Maybe I'm wearing blinders, but does North Carolina cheat? Kansas? Indiana? (Well, IU caught Kelvin Sampson cheating and dropped the atomic bomb on their own program. Think UK would ever do that?). But doesn't UK see what's coming?

Yes, Calapari is one of only four coaches to take two different teams to the Final Four, but he is the only coach to ever have two teams forfeit those Final Four appearances.

UMass made a metric crap-load of money when Calapari was there - enough to get a new arena built. They got to the Final Four - even if they had to forfeit it, it still happened. Sort of like the now-we-know-it-was-phony home run battle between Sosa and McGwire. Maybe UMass figured it was worth it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/sports/baseball/05homers.html

Memphis just lost its appeal of the NCAA's ruling that the Tigers had to forfeit their 38 wins in 2008 and give back all the dough from their Final Four run. Memphis had their most recent previous Final Four appearance in 1985 vacated for cheating too and they hadn't won in a long time, so maybe they too figured it was worth the risk.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2010/mar/22/university-memphis-appeal-turned-down-ncaa-committ/

But Kentucky? Kentucky can't get good enough players to compete for a national title without hiring the guy whose last two teams forfeited their Final Fours? Is it that hard to predict the end of this story?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/367962-memphis-smacked-by-ncaa-should-john-caliparis-kentucky-be-worried

NCAA Day 3

The crashing of so many brackets was occasioned by the stunning loss by Kansas to mighty Northern Iowa. Like Woody Guthrie sang, Down and Out. Disgusted, busted and couldn't be trusted. (Listen to this song; you'll feel better).

Watching the game unfold, Kansas looked very beatable and Northern Iowa had the audacity to do it led by a guard named Ali Farokhmanesh. UNI knocks out Kansas, advances to Sweet 16

Could be worse, could have "got the fever, Sun stroke, Malaria, blue, moonstruck, skeeter bit, Poison Ivy and the 7-year itch and the blind staggers, give up for less, lost and dead a couple of times, Struck by lightning, struck by Congress, struck by friends and kinfolks well as by 3 cars on highways A lot of times in peoples hen-houses, been hit and run down run over and walked on knocked around."



Watching Kentucky dismantle Wake Forest, on the other hand, only raised one question: how did Kentucky lose two games this year?

Miller, dominant Kentucky wallop Wake Forest

Before watching that game, I actually thought the Badgers might be able to beat Kentucky if the UW could get past Cornell. The only way Kentucky is going to lose is if they act like freshmen and do a bunch of stupid things.

BYU took down the rest of my bracket by losing to K State. K-State reaches first regional semi since 1988

The Other UW pounded overrated New Mexico. Pondexter, Washington punch ticket to Sweet 16

Jim Keck and my daughter Lindsay (not to be confused with Lindsay Wood Davis) now lead the pool.

Day 2

Day Two of the tournament saw the results return to form with only one upset 
according to the seeding, Cornell over Temple, and no buzzer beaters. The Big 
Ten won 4 of 5 with only Minnesota losing. (The best news for Badger fans is 
Tubby Smith is rumored to be headed to Auburn.) Cornell has size and that could 
spell big trouble for the Badgers. 
 
Michigan State struggled to beat New Mex State and got some help from the refs 
with a late lane violation call. Nex Mex State guard took the prize for being 
the biggest whiner when he rolled around on the floor interminably after a 
phantom poke to the man region.  
 
Izzo said the Spartans played great. Huh? I thought they looked like a team 
headed for the exits in round two. 
 
At the beginning of day 3 I could still say, "I'm still in first place." 

Not Bad for a Start

The 2010 NCAA tournament came on strong in the first day. After a couple years of very few upsets and little drama, the opening day featured 3 overtime games, game after game decided on the final possession, and at least two buzzer beaters, and four bona fide upsets.

The mighty Big East was 1-3 and needed an OT comeback win by Nova over #15 seed Bobby Morris. Villanova dodges Robert Morris' upset bid in OT

Marquette looked like golden chickens as they stood around watching the Other UW drive and score the winning bucket. Pondexter's leaner lifts 11th-seeded Washington Likewise, Texas defense looked paralytic when Wake Forest scored as time ran out to pull off the win. Smith's late swish sends Wake Forest by Texas

Murray State pulled off the play of the day to beat Vanderbilt with a literal buzzer beater; time expired as the winning show was in flight. Murray State stuns No. 4 seed Vandy at buzzer

We didn't get the Ohio upset over Georgetown on TV, but that was the biggest shock of the day. Ohio just is not that good of a team (sub.500 in the MAC). Ohio stuns Georgetown to end tourney drought 


Even Lehigh gave Kansas a tussle for about 30 minutes before falling away.

And most wonderful of all, I sit atop the pool standings for at least one day.

Today is Big Ten day.

My Picks

I mostly went chalk with my picks. (From 2009: Language Log » Obama goes all chalk)


It never pays to knock out the No. 1 seeds before at least the third round; they've won 100% of their first round games and 88% of their second round games and 83% of their 3rd round contests since 1985. It may look boring, but the trend is your friend.

I even stayed chalk all the way to the Final Four.

I did pick some upsets in the early rounds (an upset being a 7 seed or lower winning in the first round or any 4-seed gap after that). I like to use the Sagarin Ratings (2009-10 NCAA men's ratings by team ) and found something calledRaymond's Rankings  this year.

BYU is one of the more under-seeded team in the field at #7, when they should have been a #3. I have them going to the Elite Eight because I don't trust K State (and their coach is raving lunatic) and, more importantly, their likely third round game is against one of the more over-seeded teams in the field: Pitt (they are a #3, but should have been a #5 at the very best and probably lower).

I'm guessing that Purdue will get its act together and win two games, but Siena is a popular pick.



My first-round upsets:
Murray State over Vanderbilt


Utah State over Texas A&M
Minnesota over Xavier
Washington over Marquette
Old Dominion over Notre Dame



According to the computer rankings (you can add your subjective considerations or not):

Under-seeded:
BYU (#7 should have been a #3)
Texas (#8 >> #4)
Missouri (#10 >> #5)
UTEP (#12 >> #8)


Despite the ravings of Jay Bilas, Cornell was not under-seeded, #12 is about right.


Over-seeded:
New Mexico (#3 should have been a #6)
Vanderbilt (#4 >> #7)
Pitt (#3 >> #5)

Odds Are

Here's the full list of Danny Sheridan's odds against winning the NCAA tournament:

 

What's a googolplex, you ask? Dictionary.com helps us out:

 

 

 

The number 10 raised to the power googol, written out as the numeral 1 followed by 10 (to the100th power) zeros.

 

 

 

Or this: 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

 

000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

 

000,000,000,000,000

 

Here's the full list of Danny Sheridan's odds against winning the NCAA tournament:

 

 

Kansas: 3:1

Kentucky: 4:1

 

Syracuse: 6:1

 

Duke: 8:1

 

West Virginia: 10:1

 

Ohio State: 10:1

 

Kansas State: 15:1

 

Villanova: 20:1

 

Georgetown: 20:1

 

Michigan State: 30:1

 

Maryland: 50:1

 

Wisconsin: 50:1

 

Louisville: 50:1

 

Baylor: 50:1

 

Purdue: 55:1

 

Georgia Tech: 55:1

 

Xavier: 60:1

 

New Mexico: 60:1

 

Tennessee: 75:1

 

Pittsburgh: 75:1

 

Temple: 75:1

 

Texas: 75:1

 

Butler: 75:1

 

Vanderbilt: 80:1

 

Gonzaga: 80:1

 

Notre Dame: 100:1

 

BYU: 100:1

 

Marquette: 100:1

 

UNLV: 100:1

 

Oklahoma State: 150:1

 

Florida State: 200:1

 

Wake Forest: 200:1

 

Clemson: 300:1

 

Minnesota: 400:1

 

Missouri: 500:1

 

California: 600:1

 

Washington: 600:1

 

Texas A&M: 750:1

 

Northern Iowa: 1,000:1

 

Florida: 2,500:1

 

Richmond: 2,500:1

 

Siena: 5,000:1

 

Texas-El Paso: 5,000:1

 

St. Mary's: 5,000:1

 

Utah State: 6,000:1

 

San Diego State: 10,000:1

 

New Mexico State: 10,000:1

 

Old Dominion: 100,000:1

 

Houston: 250,000:1

 

Ohio: 250,000:1

 

Cornell: 1 million:1

 

Murray State: 50 million:1

 

Wofford: 50 million:1

 

Sam Houston State: 100 million:1

 

Montana: 250 million:1

 

Oakland: 1 billion:1

 

North Texas: 1 trillion:1

 

Robert Morris 2 trillion:1

 

Morgan State: 5 trillion:1

 

UC-Santa Barbara: 1 octillion:1

 

Ark.-Pine Bluff/Winthrop: 1 googolplex:1

 

East Tennessee State: 2 googolplex:1

 

Vermont: 5 googolplex:1

 

Lehigh: 10 googolplex:1

 

Championship Week Saturday - Quick Hits and a Little Philosophy

Championship Week is drawing to a close. I love watching the small conference tournaments where it is almost certainly win you're in, lose you're done. Winners of conference tournaments get the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

We watch the games because they present a tableau of human drama with all the elements of classic Greek tragedy.

Aristotle defined tragedy thus: "Tragedy is a form of drama exciting the emotions of pity and fear. Its action should be single and complete, presenting a reversal of fortune, involving persons renowned and of superior attainments,and it should be written in poetry embellished with every kind of artistic expression."

And you thought you were just watching hoops.

***

We also watch to see the outstanding performances that some athletes rise to in championship moments. Meet Anthony Johnson of Montana whose 42 points propelled the Grizzlies into the NCAA tournament over Weber State. Even better than Montana hero's 42-point game: His back story by Jeff Eisenberg

***

Vermont's Evan Fjeld took the court today in the America East final just days after his mother passed away from cancer.

Fjeld, a junior from Durham, N.C., informed his teammates about his mother’s failing health Monday after the Catamounts returned from the University of Hartford, where they advanced through America East’s quarterfinal and semifinal rounds.

“Evan is a strong young man; he didn’t tell anyone that his mom was dying this winter,” UVM coach Mike Lonergan said. “Our guys were shocked. We see his mom at all the games."

Fjeld said he was given the option to sit out the championship game to grieve his loss.

“If you knew my mom, she would not have had that,” Fjeld said. “So I’m going to go out and play as hard as I can play, because this is really an escape for me, and for all my family back home, hopefully it will be an escape for them, too.”

“When Evan told us, it was very emotional,” UVM junior guard Joey Accaoui said. “As a team we all felt the pain. It makes you realize there is more to basketball than the winning and the losing; it’s about the relationships we build.”

***

Bubbles bursting? Minnesota beat Michigan State and their head whiner Tom Izzo (what a crybaby), but according to ESPN's bracket guru Joe Lunardi they are still on the outside looking in. Illinois knocked off the Badgers and apparently solidified a spot. 

Minnesota stays alive, stuns Michigan St. in OT

Illinois tips Wisconsin, moves into Big Ten semis 

Not so fast, my friend. This morning already delivered one upset with Houston upsetting UTEP. Because UTEP is good enough to merit a spot without winning the conference title, so Houston just stole a spot. Houston tops UTEP for 1st NCAA bid in 18 years.

***

That win also marks the return of Tom Penders to the NCAA big stage and apparently saved his job. The well-traveled Penders is far from universally loved.

• 
  

  The best little scandal in Texas - Sports (relating the scandal around the 1999 release of a player's grade when Penders was at Texas).

• 
  

  Penders Resigns Under Cloud - Los Angeles Times (when he resigned from George Washington)

• 
  

  Houston's Clear Thinkers: UH is hiring who by Houston attorney Tom Kirkendall and UH booster.

And then there's his man-perm. I don't know who his little buddy is.

Thanks be to Tivo. Back to the games.