Day 2

Day Two of the tournament saw the results return to form with only one upset 
according to the seeding, Cornell over Temple, and no buzzer beaters. The Big 
Ten won 4 of 5 with only Minnesota losing. (The best news for Badger fans is 
Tubby Smith is rumored to be headed to Auburn.) Cornell has size and that could 
spell big trouble for the Badgers. 
 
Michigan State struggled to beat New Mex State and got some help from the refs 
with a late lane violation call. Nex Mex State guard took the prize for being 
the biggest whiner when he rolled around on the floor interminably after a 
phantom poke to the man region.  
 
Izzo said the Spartans played great. Huh? I thought they looked like a team 
headed for the exits in round two. 
 
At the beginning of day 3 I could still say, "I'm still in first place." 

Not Bad for a Start

The 2010 NCAA tournament came on strong in the first day. After a couple years of very few upsets and little drama, the opening day featured 3 overtime games, game after game decided on the final possession, and at least two buzzer beaters, and four bona fide upsets.

The mighty Big East was 1-3 and needed an OT comeback win by Nova over #15 seed Bobby Morris. Villanova dodges Robert Morris' upset bid in OT

Marquette looked like golden chickens as they stood around watching the Other UW drive and score the winning bucket. Pondexter's leaner lifts 11th-seeded Washington Likewise, Texas defense looked paralytic when Wake Forest scored as time ran out to pull off the win. Smith's late swish sends Wake Forest by Texas

Murray State pulled off the play of the day to beat Vanderbilt with a literal buzzer beater; time expired as the winning show was in flight. Murray State stuns No. 4 seed Vandy at buzzer

We didn't get the Ohio upset over Georgetown on TV, but that was the biggest shock of the day. Ohio just is not that good of a team (sub.500 in the MAC). Ohio stuns Georgetown to end tourney drought 


Even Lehigh gave Kansas a tussle for about 30 minutes before falling away.

And most wonderful of all, I sit atop the pool standings for at least one day.

Today is Big Ten day.

My Picks

I mostly went chalk with my picks. (From 2009: Language Log » Obama goes all chalk)


It never pays to knock out the No. 1 seeds before at least the third round; they've won 100% of their first round games and 88% of their second round games and 83% of their 3rd round contests since 1985. It may look boring, but the trend is your friend.

I even stayed chalk all the way to the Final Four.

I did pick some upsets in the early rounds (an upset being a 7 seed or lower winning in the first round or any 4-seed gap after that). I like to use the Sagarin Ratings (2009-10 NCAA men's ratings by team ) and found something calledRaymond's Rankings  this year.

BYU is one of the more under-seeded team in the field at #7, when they should have been a #3. I have them going to the Elite Eight because I don't trust K State (and their coach is raving lunatic) and, more importantly, their likely third round game is against one of the more over-seeded teams in the field: Pitt (they are a #3, but should have been a #5 at the very best and probably lower).

I'm guessing that Purdue will get its act together and win two games, but Siena is a popular pick.



My first-round upsets:
Murray State over Vanderbilt


Utah State over Texas A&M
Minnesota over Xavier
Washington over Marquette
Old Dominion over Notre Dame



According to the computer rankings (you can add your subjective considerations or not):

Under-seeded:
BYU (#7 should have been a #3)
Texas (#8 >> #4)
Missouri (#10 >> #5)
UTEP (#12 >> #8)


Despite the ravings of Jay Bilas, Cornell was not under-seeded, #12 is about right.


Over-seeded:
New Mexico (#3 should have been a #6)
Vanderbilt (#4 >> #7)
Pitt (#3 >> #5)